SPY was trading at 773.63 at 3:54 PM ET, up 0.6% on the day and a hair below our gamma flip estimate of 774.16. Below that level the open interest we read leaves dealers net short gamma, which tends to amplify moves rather than damp them. The 800 call wall sits overhead and the 745 put wall below.
The 10/22 at-the-money straddle at the 774 strike was $4.31, or about ±0.56%, which puts tomorrow’s priced range at roughly 769 to 778. QQQ is in the same position at larger scale: 726.09, up 1.18%, under a flip near 731, with a ±1.02% move priced for 10/22.
Meta and Tesla both report after today’s close, according to the earnings calendar we checked this morning. Their 10/23 straddles price moves of about ±7.0% and ±5.6%, and their at-the-money implied volatility is 118% and 94%.
SPY
The snapshot puts SPY right at the flip, so the sign of dealer gamma depends on which side of 774 the next print lands. Net gamma across the four expiries we read was about -$611M per 1% move at spot. Put open interest is heavy: 201,159 contracts at 745 and a 1.38 put/call OI ratio. The 10/30 760 and 745 puts each traded more than 65,000 contracts today. Term structure is flat, with ATM IV between 13.1% and 13.5% from 10/22 out to 11/20.
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| Last (15:54 ET) | 773.63 (+0.60%) |
| Call wall | 800 (113,741 OI) |
| Put wall | 745 (201,159 OI) |
| Gamma flip | 774.16 |
| 10/22 straddle (774) | $4.31, ±0.56% (769.33–777.94), ATM IV 13.3% |
| 10/23 straddle (774) | $6.01, ±0.78% (767.62–779.65), ATM IV 13.1% |
| 10/30 straddle (774) | $13.15, ±1.70% (760.48–786.79), ATM IV 13.5% |
| 11/20 straddle (774) | $23.86, ±3.08% (749.78–797.49), ATM IV 13.4% |
| Put/call ratio | 1.38 OI, 1.13 volume |
QQQ
QQQ was further below its flip than SPY: 726 against 731.36. Net gamma at spot was about -$1.4B per 1% move, the largest negative reading of the nine names. The 700 put strike holds 176,057 contracts of open interest, against 58,243 calls at the 750 wall. ATM IV for 10/22 was 24.3% against 13.3% for SPY, which reflects two index heavyweights reporting tonight.
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| Last (15:54 ET) | 726.09 (+1.18%) |
| Call wall | 750 (58,243 OI) |
| Put wall | 700 (176,057 OI) |
| Gamma flip | 731.36 |
| 10/22 straddle (726) | $7.42, ±1.02% (718.67–733.51), ATM IV 24.3% |
| 10/23 straddle (726) | $10.19, ±1.40% (715.90–736.28), ATM IV 23.7% |
| 10/30 straddle (726) | $21.44, ±2.95% (704.65–747.53), ATM IV 23.5% |
| 11/20 straddle (726) | $35.52, ±4.89% (690.58–761.61), ATM IV 21.4% |
| Put/call ratio | 1.76 OI, 1.06 volume |
Mag 7
META and TSLA carry the week’s event premium. Every other name prices a 10/23 move between ±1.5% and ±2.3%. TSLA was the strongest of the group, up 3.17% into its print, with call volume concentrated at 385 to 420. GOOGL was the only decliner, down 1.56% and sitting on its flip at 334.24. MSFT’s net gamma stayed positive across the whole 467.5 to 595 window we read, so it shows no flip.
| Ticker | Last | Chg | Call wall | Put wall | Gamma flip | Implied move | ATM IV | P/C OI | P/C vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 344.25 | +1.40% | 350 | 330 | 335.61 | ±1.5% (10/23) | 26% | 0.60 | 0.96 |
| MSFT | 532.95 | +0.20% | 570 | 500 | none in window | ±1.7% (10/23) | 29% | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| NVDA | 221.45 | +2.30% | 230 | 200 | 211.2 | ±2.2% (10/23) | 37% | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| AMZN | 262.78 | +0.06% | 280 | 250 | 233.77 | ±2.3% (10/23) | 38% | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| GOOGL | 334.97 | -1.56% | 370 | 330 | 334.24 | ±2.1% (10/23) | 36% | 0.74 | 0.35 |
| META | 701.42 | +1.03% | 750 | 680 | 662.94 | ±7.0% (10/23) | 118% | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| TSLA | 385.57 | +3.17% | 400 | 350 | 338.42 | ±5.6% (10/23) | 94% | 0.47 | 0.66 |
Notable strikes and flow
Short-dated calls led the session. The SPY 10/22 775 call traded 73,177 contracts against 6,571 open, and the QQQ 10/22 725, 730 and 731 calls each traded about 40,000 on open interest of 5,000 or less. NVDA’s 10/23 225 call traded 70,949. The GOOGL 10/30 352.5 call stands out: 23,041 contracts traded against 495 open. Volume that far above open interest usually means new positions, but the snapshot cannot say who bought or sold.
| Contract | Volume | OI | Mid | IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY 10/22 775C | 73,177 | 6,571 | 1.50 | 12.8% |
| SPY 10/30 745P | 72,348 | 129,222 | 0.88 | 18.2% |
| AMZN 10/30 280C | 20,044 | 38,440 | 3.83 | 59.3% |
| GOOGL 10/30 352.5C | 23,041 | 495 | 4.20 | 49.3% |
| META 10/23 750C | 12,287 | 7,315 | 7.38 | 113.4% |
| TSLA 10/23 400C | 33,236 | 16,076 | 5.20 | 93.8% |
| QQQ 10/22 725C | 40,149 | 1,146 | 4.39 | 24.8% |
| QQQ 10/22 730C | 39,883 | 4,757 | 1.94 | 23.1% |
| AAPL 10/23 345C | 35,062 | 12,263 | 2.33 | 26.4% |
| MSFT 10/30 575C | 15,149 | 15,862 | 2.29 | 41.8% |
| NVDA 10/23 225C | 70,949 | 34,223 | 1.10 | 36.9% |
What to watch for the rest of the session and tomorrow
- Into the close: whether SPY settles above or below the 774 flip and QQQ above or below 731.
- After the bell: META and TSLA earnings. Their 10/23 straddles price about ±$48.82 and ±$21.52.
- Thursday: weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and leading indicators at 10:00 AM ET. SPY’s 10/22 straddle prices about 769 to 778.
- Friday: flash PMIs at 9:45 AM ET and the final University of Michigan survey at 10:00 AM ET, alongside the 10/23 weekly expiry.
- Expiries ahead: 10/22, 10/23 (weekly), 10/30 and the 11/20 monthly.
How these numbers are built
Data: Robinhood quotes, option chains, open interest and Greeks, read between 3:53 and 3:54 PM ET on October 21, 2026 (an intraday snapshot, before the close). Open interest is as of the prior settlement; volume is the session so far. The call wall is the strike at or above spot with the most call open interest across the expiries read; the put wall is the strike at or below spot with the most put open interest. The gamma flip assumes dealers are long the calls and short the puts customers trade; it re-prices each contract’s gamma at its own implied volatility across a grid of prices and marks where net dealer gamma changes sign. Implied moves are the at-the-money straddle mid for that expiry. Strikes read: SPY 736–810, QQQ 691–753 and about ±12% around spot for each Mag 7 name, across 10/22 (SPY and QQQ only), 10/23, 10/30 and 11/20. Earnings dates come from an earnings calendar read this morning.
For information only, not investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.